{"id":507,"date":"2026-06-01T19:00:39","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T19:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507"},"modified":"2026-06-01T19:00:39","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T19:00:39","slug":"what-can-prediction-markets-tell-us-about-the-california-governors-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507","title":{"rendered":"What Can Prediction Markets Tell Us About the California Governor\u2019s Race?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

California\u2019s top-two primary for governor is coming down to the final turn.<\/p>\n

In the last few polls before Election Day, Democrat Xavier Becerra has kept a steady \u2014 but small \u2014 lead. One survey showed Becerra leading with 25% support among likely voters, followed closely by Republican Steve Hilton with 21%. Another poll published last Saturday also had Becerra ahead, but with Democrat Tom Steyer in second position instead.<\/p>\n

Read more Three Recent Graduates Share Their Thoughts on AI<\/a><\/p>\n

Polls ask likely voters who they think they will vote for. But what if instead you ask voters who they think will win<\/em> the race? Two different questions, two different kinds of information.<\/p>\n

Read more April Showers Help Boost Summer Reservoir Levels in the East Bay<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Read more San Francisco Police Officer Shot in Bayview Chase, Suspect Wounded, in Custody<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kalshi and Polymarket have promoted themselves as more accurate alternatives to opinion polls. But just how good are prediction markets \u2014 and what can they tell us that opinion polls can\u2019t?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":506,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-507","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat Can Prediction Markets Tell Us About the California Governor\u2019s Race? - Sacramento Moving Hub<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What Can Prediction Markets Tell Us About the California Governor\u2019s Race? - Sacramento Moving Hub\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kalshi and Polymarket have promoted themselves as more accurate alternatives to opinion polls. But just how good are prediction markets \u2014 and what can they tell us that opinion polls can\u2019t?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Sacramento Moving Hub\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-01T19:00:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?p=507#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?p=507\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c703763e3a86ce0eba17becb53994618\"},\"headline\":\"What Can Prediction Markets Tell Us About the California Governor\u2019s Race?\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-01T19:00:39+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?p=507\"},\"wordCount\":148,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?p=507#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/b97388bd26b045bf0c631b150a8a8d42.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?p=507#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?p=507\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?p=507\",\"name\":\"What Can Prediction Markets Tell Us About the California Governor\u2019s Race? - Sacramento Moving Hub\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?p=507#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?p=507#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/b97388bd26b045bf0c631b150a8a8d42.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-01T19:00:39+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c703763e3a86ce0eba17becb53994618\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?p=507#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?p=507\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?p=507#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/b97388bd26b045bf0c631b150a8a8d42.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/b97388bd26b045bf0c631b150a8a8d42.jpg\",\"width\":2000,\"height\":1331,\"caption\":\"CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - FEBRUARY 25: In this photo illustration, Predictions market sites are shown on electronic devices on February 25, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Online prediction market platforms, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, allow people to place bets on wide-ranging subjects such as sports, finance, politics and currents events. (Photo Illustration by Scott Olson\\\/Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?p=507#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"What Can Prediction Markets Tell Us About the California Governor\u2019s Race?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"Sacramento Moving Hub\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c703763e3a86ce0eba17becb53994618\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sacramentomovinghub.com\\\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"What Can Prediction Markets Tell Us About the California Governor\u2019s Race? - Sacramento Moving Hub","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"What Can Prediction Markets Tell Us About the California Governor\u2019s Race? - Sacramento Moving Hub","og_description":"Kalshi and Polymarket have promoted themselves as more accurate alternatives to opinion polls. But just how good are prediction markets \u2014 and what can they tell us that opinion polls can\u2019t?","og_url":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507","og_site_name":"Sacramento Moving Hub","article_published_time":"2026-06-01T19:00:39+00:00","author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/#\/schema\/person\/c703763e3a86ce0eba17becb53994618"},"headline":"What Can Prediction Markets Tell Us About the California Governor\u2019s Race?","datePublished":"2026-06-01T19:00:39+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507"},"wordCount":148,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/b97388bd26b045bf0c631b150a8a8d42.jpg","articleSection":["News"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507","url":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507","name":"What Can Prediction Markets Tell Us About the California Governor\u2019s Race? - Sacramento Moving Hub","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/b97388bd26b045bf0c631b150a8a8d42.jpg","datePublished":"2026-06-01T19:00:39+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/#\/schema\/person\/c703763e3a86ce0eba17becb53994618"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/b97388bd26b045bf0c631b150a8a8d42.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/b97388bd26b045bf0c631b150a8a8d42.jpg","width":2000,"height":1331,"caption":"CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - FEBRUARY 25: In this photo illustration, Predictions market sites are shown on electronic devices on February 25, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Online prediction market platforms, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, allow people to place bets on wide-ranging subjects such as sports, finance, politics and currents events. (Photo Illustration by Scott Olson\/Getty Images)"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?p=507#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"What Can Prediction Markets Tell Us About the California Governor\u2019s Race?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/","name":"Sacramento Moving Hub","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/#\/schema\/person\/c703763e3a86ce0eba17becb53994618","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"admin"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com"],"url":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/507","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=507"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/507\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/506"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=507"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=507"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sacramentomovinghub.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=507"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}